The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 98% chance for “Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat”, up from 58% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 66% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | −0.1 pts | +39.9 pts | $131k |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melody626 | Yes | $11k | +$3k |
| soapbubbles | Yes | $5k | +$3k |
| Gaditima | Yes | $3k | +$2k |
| Votei14Voude22 | Yes | $3k | +$174 |
| STONKS228 | Yes | $2k | +$105 |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | $2k | +$182 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | $1k | +$359 |
| Rayse | Yes | $984 | +$743 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.