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Finance

Finance prediction markets: odds today

Central banks, stocks, commodities, company events and IPOs, priced by traders on Polymarket. As of 8 November 2026: Fed Decision in December, 25 bps increase 76%, US announces end of Iranian blockade by …, March 31 66% and What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026, ↑ $110 17%.

37 markets on the map, sorted by money traded this week. Nimb’s categories are its own and do not always match Polymarket’s; how categories work.

MarketLeadingChance7 daysTraded, 7 days
Fed Decision in December?25 bps increase76%+6.0 pts$6.5M
US announces end of Iranian blockade by …March 3166%+3.0 pts$3.2M
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in November 2026?↑ $11017%−53.0 pts$1.2M
Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap$1.5–$1.75T31%+12.3 pts$1.1M
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes8%−4.5 pts$868k
Anthropic IPO by …December 31, 202686%−3.3 pts$711k
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by …December 3136%−3.0 pts$618k
Crude Oil all time high by …March 31, 202719%−9.5 pts$492k
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?↑$1.5T73%−17.4 pts$428k
Largest Company end of December 2026?Apple65%+21.2 pts$418k
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?SpaceX88%+32.5 pts$416k
US imports Russian diesel by …March 3134%−32.5 pts$392k
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes76%+5.0 pts$325k
AI bubble burst by …June 30, 202724%+2.0 pts$258k
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?Yes4%−2.0 pts$211k
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by …December 3124%−10.5 pts$204k
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by …December 3110%−2.0 pts$183k
What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?↓ $3,50010%−10.5 pts$181k
Largest Company end of November 2026?Apple74%+23.5 pts$122k
What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in November 2026?↑ $20061%+16.5 pts$114k
Anthropic IPO DateNovember 2022%−2.5 pts$103k
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by …November 3034%−1.5 pts$96k
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by …December 3132%−23.0 pts$91k
How much will Anthropic raise in its IPO?$65B to $75B36%+33.4 pts$90k
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?2 (50 bps)78%+5.0 pts$79k
IPOs before 2027?Anthropic88%−1.5 pts$63k
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)Hike–Pause–Hike76%+4.0 pts$60k
What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?$1.25–$1.50T47%+40.6 pts$49k
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?<$1T26%+3.3 pts$42k
Houthis enter Aden by …December 3114%−3.5 pts$33k
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by …December 31, 202766%0.0 pts$22k
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap1.5T+34%−4.5 pts$17k
October Inflation China - Annual0.7% to 0.8%48%+2.5 pts$16k
Bank of Canada Decision in December?No Change74%+11.5 pts$16k
Anthropic announces bankruptcy by …December 31, 202922%−1.0 pts$8k
OpenAI announces bankruptcy by …December 31, 202922%−1.0 pts$6k
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026?Yes12%−6.5 pts$4k

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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.