As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 8% by 31 December and 24% by 30 June 2027.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 8% | −0.4 pts | −1.4 pts | $206k |
| 30 June 2027 | 24% | −2.0 pts | +2.0 pts | $52k |
A price of 24% means traders pay about $0.24 for the 30 June 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMM-1 | December 31, 2026 · No | $22k | −$2 |
| MisTKy | December 31, 2026 · No | $15k | −$14 |
| deltasniper | December 31, 2026 · No | $9k | +$87 |
| mazw8 | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$892 |
| darlok | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$213 |
| phantomtradr | December 31, 2026 · No | $6k | +$191 |
| scottycam | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$12 |
| deltasniper | June 30, 2027 · No | $4k | −$75 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.