As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 31 December, 14% by 30 June 2027, 20% by 31 December 2027 and 32% by 31 December 2028.
The 31 December 2028 line moved the most this week: 26% to 32% (+5.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 3% | −0.1 pts | −0.4 pts | $0 |
| 30 June 2027 | 14% | 0.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 20% | 0.0 pts | +4.0 pts | $29k |
| 31 December 2028 | 32% | 0.0 pts | +5.5 pts | $0 |
A price of 32% means traders pay about $0.32 for the 31 December 2028 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| whig | December 31, 2027 · No | $15k | +$3k |
| whig | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$251 |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $3k | +$447 |
| Haradwaith | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | −$20 |
| 1nvoker1 | June 30, 2027 · No | $2k | +$33 |
| MisTKy | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | −$4 |
| momo513 | December 31, 2026 · No | $612 | −$4 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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