As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 1% by 31 December, 36% by 30 June 2027 and 56% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 72% to 56% (−15.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 1% | 0.0 pts | −0.6 pts | $69k |
| 30 June 2027 | 36% | −0.5 pts | −10.0 pts | $36k |
| 31 December 2027 | 56% | −1.0 pts | −15.5 pts | $55k |
A price of 56% means traders pay about $0.56 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| allenzzz | December 31, 2026 · No | $55k | +$2k |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | December 31, 2026 · No | $28k | +$3k |
| 0x4b6f…fcdb | December 31, 2026 · No | $12k | +$2k |
| eNakeVets | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $8k | −$167 |
| Alegrandebig | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$113 |
| ioudas | December 31, 2027 · No | $6k | +$532 |
| elmcap2 | December 31, 2026 · No | $6k | +$524 |
| tryingout1 | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$507 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Politics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.