As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Johnny Chiang at 80%, followed by Ho Hsin-chun at 19%.
Johnny Chiang moved the most this week: 84% to 80% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Chiang | 80% | +3.5 pts | −4.0 pts | $33k |
| Ho Hsin-chun | 19% | −4.6 pts | +3.4 pts | $24k |
A price of 80% means traders pay about $0.80 for a “Johnny Chiang” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Ho Hsin-chun · No | $16k | – |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Johnny Chiang · Yes | $8k | +$264 |
| drivo251 | Johnny Chiang · Yes | $5k | +$187 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Johnny Chiang · No | $4k | – |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Ho Hsin-chun · No | $2k | +$92 |
| OATH1989 | Johnny Chiang · Yes | $2k | +$65 |
| RepublicOfChina | Johnny Chiang · Yes | $1k | +$21 |
| december | Ho Hsin-chun · No | $1k | −$7 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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