The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 100% chance for “Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election”, up from 88% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 77% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 0.0 pts | +11.1 pts | $60k |
A price of 100% means traders pay about $1.00 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0c0e…434e | Yes | $45k | +$7k |
| SAPolitcsSeer | Yes | $24k | +$3k |
| 0x91c3…409f | Yes | $14k | +$1k |
| scottilicious | Yes | $13k | +$2k |
| AZwater | Yes | $10k | +$43 |
| 18in36out | Yes | $7k | +$832 |
| 0xd8d5…8935 | Yes | $6k | +$224 |
| Sylar012 | Yes | $4k | −$12 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.