Multi-outcome markets

A multi-outcome market is a Polymarket event with several linked Yes/No markets, such as a list of candidates, a ladder of deadlines or a set of price levels. On Nimb, the panel leads with one outcome and lists the others with their chances, and the logic between outcomes is the first thing to check.

What are the three shapes of event?

A multi-outcome event is a group of Yes/No markets on one question, each with its own price, book and holders. They come in three shapes, and each has its own logic. Knowing which one you face is the first step of market reading on these events.

Each outcome is priced like any single market; Polymarket odds explained covers how a price becomes a chance.

Why do the outcomes of an election market add up to about 100%?

Because one candidate wins and the rest lose. If you bought one Yes share in every outcome, exactly one would pay $1. So the Yes prices across the list should cost about $1 in total. On 2026-11-07 at 12:00 UTC, Nimb's snapshot of "Fed Decision in December?" read:

The sum is not exactly 100% because each chance is a mid price between bid and ask. If the Yes asks of all outcomes added up to less than $1, you could buy one of each and collect $1 whatever happened. If the bids added up to more than $1, the reverse trade would work. Traders close these gaps fast, so sums stay within a few points of 100%. Fees and spreads usually eat any gap left.

Two cents on 98 looks like a riskless 2%. Before fees, depth on every leg and the months your money is locked, it rarely is.

What is a neg-risk market?

A neg-risk market is a Polymarket event of mutually exclusive outcomes in which one No share in any outcome can be converted into one Yes share in each of the other outcomes. The logic: "Candidate A does not win" is the same as "one of the others wins". Conversion makes that link enforceable, so money held on No in one outcome backs the whole list and prices stay consistent. Some neg-risk events add placeholder or "Other" outcomes so that new candidates can be listed after trading starts. Polymarket's documentation on negative risk has the contract detail.

How do "by date" ladders relate to each other?

A date ladder asks the same question with different deadlines. Anything that happens by Nov 30 has also happened by Dec 31, so the later date must be at least as likely:

A broken ladder is a classic market reading flag. When a ladder breaks the rule, the cause is usually a thin book on one rung, a stale price, or different wording in the rules (one rung may count a different source). Read the rules before treating it as a mispricing. The gap between rungs is useful on its own: here, the market gives 13 points to the event falling between Dec 1 and Dec 31. Ladders are not neg-risk: several rungs can resolve Yes.

On Nimb, the dates join the title ("… by Nov 30 / Dec 31 / Mar 31"), and the reading names the date: "Traders see a 25% chance that it happens by Dec 31, up 3.0 points over the past week."

How should I read "What price will Bitcoin hit" markets?

Each level is its own Yes/No market: "Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in November?" (↑) or "Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November?" (↓). Snapshot of "What price will Bitcoin hit in November?" on 2026-11-07 at 12:00 UTC, as shown on Nimb:

The rules: for dips, a lower level must be no more likely than a higher one (any dip to $60,000 passes $65,000 on the way). For rises, a higher level must be no more likely than a lower one. Here the ↓ levels fall in order, 58.5% → 17.0% → 7.5% → 4.2%, so the ladder is consistent. Read together, the levels sketch the market's view of the month's range. They do not add up to 100%: several can resolve Yes, and none may.

The event has 19 outcomes in total; Nimb shows the five above.

How does Nimb show multi-outcome events?

• One circle per event. On the map, the event is one circle; its size sums the money traded across its outcomes.
• A lead outcome. The panel opens on the outcome with the most money traded over 7 days on an undecided price (7-day volume weighted by how close its price is to 50%). That is often, but not always, the most likely outcome.
• An outcome list. Under the title, each outcome shows its chance and its change in points. Click one and the whole panel (reading, chart, money flow, Before you trade, ticket) switches to it.
• Top outcomes only. Nimb loads the five most traded outcomes priced between 1% and 99%. The rest are on Polymarket.
• Holders by event. Top holders are listed across the event's outcomes, with the outcome name next to each position.

The panel is described in full on the market panel. Logical links between outcomes are different from statistical ones; markets that merely move together are covered in moves with and against.

What can a multi-outcome reading not tell you?

• The hidden outcomes. If Nimb shows five of 19, the other 14 can still hold a few percent between them, and a long shot can win.
• Whether an "Other" outcome covers your case. Check the rules on Polymarket.
• Whether a gap is real. A sum of 96% or a broken ladder is more often a thin book or a stale price than free profit.
• Why a candidate moved. In a neg-risk list, one outcome rising pulls the others down; the chart of one outcome alone can mislead.

Back to the six checks: how to read a market. Terms are in the glossary.

From reading to execution

Reading the market on a multi-outcome event means choosing the outcome first, then reading it like a single market. The ticket follows the outcome you select, so the price, shares and break-even in the order ticket are always for that outcome.

Last reviewed 2026-11-07 · Data from Polymarket · Not financial advice · Nimb is not affiliated with Polymarket.