As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 12% chance for “China x Philippines military clash before 2027”, down from 20% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 26% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 0.0 pts | −8.0 pts | $20k |
A price of 12% means traders pay about $0.12 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| SlenderMan | No | $83k | +$19k |
| hdlisme-acc2 | No | $44k | +$5k |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Yes | $35k | −$61k |
| i400 | No | $34k | +$8k |
| fqy2026 | No | $23k | +$3k |
| budu100 | No | $22k | +$5k |
| 0xffd3…7c75 | No | $17k | +$4k |
| Valen9 | No | $17k | +$4k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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