As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026”, unchanged from a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 2% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0.0 pts | −0.2 pts | $443k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamax | No | $492k | +$12k |
| Anjun | No | $399k | +$11k |
| winforretire | No | $395k | +$26k |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No | $384k | +$42k |
| llh | No | $240k | +$74k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $212k | +$6k |
| momom | No | $203k | +$23k |
| allenzzz | No | $186k | +$6k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.