As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Draw at 92%, followed by Afghanistan at 4% and Zimbabwe at 3%.
Draw moved the most this week: 47% to 92% (+44.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 92% | +26.0 pts | +44.5 pts | $14k |
| Afghanistan | 4% | −13.2 pts | −40.7 pts | $33k |
| Zimbabwe | 3% | −12.8 pts | −32.3 pts | $16k |
A price of 92% means traders pay about $0.92 for a “Draw” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| RDLedger | Afghanistan · No | $4k | +$329 |
| dpk-501 | Draw · Yes | $2k | +$370 |
| letscookin2027 | Draw · Yes | $2k | +$229 |
| dips. | Zimbabwe · No | $2k | +$472 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Zimbabwe · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Afghanistan · No | $1k | – |
| RDLedger | Draw · Yes | $1k | +$245 |
| botparadise | Afghanistan · No | $957 | +$25 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.