The deadline passed on 8 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 28m-31m at 52%, followed by 31m-34m at 47%.
31m-34m moved the most this week: 11% to 47% (+36.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28m-31m | 52% | −0.5 pts | +30.5 pts | $30k |
| 31m-34m | 47% | +7.5 pts | +36.0 pts | $37k |
A price of 52% means traders pay about $0.52 for a “28m-31m” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 31m-34m · No | $5k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 28m-31m · No | $5k | – |
| 0x955c…990f | 31m-34m · Yes | $2k | −$185 |
| 0x5095…93ee | 28m-31m · Yes | $1k | +$154 |
| cat-dog | 28m-31m · Yes | $1k | +$673 |
| Nostdam | 28m-31m · Yes | $1k | +$542 |
| Elposton | 31m-34m · Yes | $896 | −$104 |
| Phalord | 31m-34m · Yes | $752 | +$98 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.