As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 12°C at 55%, followed by 11°C at 28% and 13°C at 14%.
11°C moved the most this week: 44% to 28% (−16.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12°C | 55% | +9.0 pts | +10.0 pts | $4k |
| 11°C | 28% | −4.5 pts | −16.0 pts | $3k |
| 13°C | 14% | −1.0 pts | −10.5 pts | $3k |
| 10°C | 5% | +0.7 pts | −7.1 pts | $3k |
| 14°C | 1% | −0.4 pts | −13.3 pts | $2k |
A price of 55% means traders pay about $0.55 for a “12°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 14°C · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 10°C · No | $1k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 13°C · No | $964 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 11°C · No | $808 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 12°C · No | $507 | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.