As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 14°C at 35%, followed by 15°C at 26% and 13°C at 24%.
12°C moved the most this week: 30% to 7% (−23.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14°C | 35% | −2.5 pts | +14.0 pts | $3k |
| 15°C | 26% | 0.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $2k |
| 13°C | 24% | +2.5 pts | −5.5 pts | $3k |
| 16°C | 8% | +0.5 pts | −21.0 pts | $625 |
| 12°C | 7% | +1.2 pts | −23.4 pts | $962 |
A price of 35% means traders pay about $0.35 for a “14°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| quqqq | 14°C · No | $792 | +$15 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.