As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is No change at 61%, followed by 25 bps increase at 38%.
25 bps increase moved the most this week: 26% to 38% (+12.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 61% | +8.0 pts | −9.5 pts | $18k |
| 25 bps increase | 38% | −4.5 pts | +12.5 pts | $16k |
A price of 61% means traders pay about $0.61 for a “No change” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| firegold | No change · Yes | $7k | −$367 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 25 bps increase · No | $6k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No change · No | $4k | – |
| aghy | 25 bps increase · Yes | $3k | −$54 |
| podairpod | No change · Yes | $870 | +$27 |
| PerfectTaste | No change · Yes | $656 | +$15 |
| podairpod | 25 bps increase · Yes | $539 | +$31 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.