As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 6% by 31 December and 26% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2026 line moved the most this week: 10% to 6% (−4.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 6% | +0.5 pts | −4.0 pts | $26k |
| 31 December 2027 | 26% | −1.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $65k |
A price of 26% means traders pay about $0.26 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| anoin123 | December 31, 2026 · No | $21k | +$1k |
| stupid22 | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$64 |
| 0xe41a…29bd | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$70 |
| HerrieDavis | December 31, 2027 · No | $1k | +$100 |
| HuskyRRRRR | December 31, 2026 · No | $1k | +$37 |
| Shaygai19121983 | December 31, 2027 · Yes | $910 | −$90 |
| RdogTest | December 31, 2026 · No | $806 | +$29 |
| 080526 | December 31, 2026 · No | $792 | +$39 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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