The deadline passed on 7 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 99% chance for “US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026”, up from 89% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 89% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | +0.3 pts | +9.9 pts | $812k |
A price of 99% means traders pay about $0.99 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pilimili | Yes | $27k | +$592 |
| pIebe | Yes | $18k | +$688 |
| TronOG | Yes | $17k | +$519 |
| MEPP | Yes | $12k | +$476 |
| 0xe5ee…f710 | Yes | $8k | +$214 |
| 0xf2b0…b26b | Yes | $6k | +$32 |
| justme003 | Yes | $5k | +$105 |
| 0x6c10…df5c | Yes | $5k | +$380 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.