As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is No prison time at 63%, followed by 60+ at 22% and <20 at 4%.
No prison time moved the most this week: 45% to 63% (+18.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prison time | 63% | +2.5 pts | +18.0 pts | $7k |
| 60+ | 22% | −3.5 pts | −13.5 pts | $74k |
| <20 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −4.4 pts | $0 |
| 40–60 | 3% | +0.2 pts | −2.3 pts | $0 |
| 20–40 | 2% | 0.0 pts | −3.8 pts | $0 |
A price of 63% means traders pay about $0.63 for a “No prison time” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 20–40 · No | $11k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 40–60 · No | $10k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | <20 · No | $10k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 60+ · No | $8k | – |
| inventive | No prison time · Yes | $5k | +$3k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No prison time · No | $4k | – |
| paddaa | No prison time · Yes | $3k | +$187 |
| tgrdy | No prison time · No | $2k | −$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.