As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 30 November and 11% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 9% to 3% (−5.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 3% | +0.4 pts | −5.6 pts | $2k |
| 31 December 2027 | 11% | 0.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $8k |
A price of 11% means traders pay about $0.11 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| RememberAmalek | December 31 · No | $10k | +$4k |
| GayPride | December 31 · No | $5k | +$3k |
| DiaMat | November 30 · No | $1k | +$79 |
| 080526 | December 31 · No | $967 | +$292 |
| Everestpredictions | November 30 · No | $840 | +$5 |
| AlAhmeda | December 31 · No | $802 | +$130 |
| eCash | December 31 · Yes | $784 | −$2k |
| BoubouleLePetitZboub | December 31 · No | $712 | +$176 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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