As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is China at 88%, followed by No meeting by December 31 at 12%.
China moved the most this week: 82% to 88% (+5.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 88% | +0.5 pts | +5.5 pts | $91k |
| No meeting by December 31 | 12% | +1.0 pts | −4.0 pts | $35k |
A price of 88% means traders pay about $0.88 for a “China” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No meeting by December 31 · No | $64k | – |
| stupid22 | China · Yes | $11k | +$581 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | China · No | $9k | – |
| Fulgurator | No meeting by December 31 · No | $9k | +$5k |
| Chims | China · Yes | $7k | +$255 |
| fpjsqj | China · Yes | $6k | −$2 |
| Udonsan | China · Yes | $6k | +$534 |
| Robbb | China · Yes | $5k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.