The deadline passed on 31 October 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mark Carney by October 31, 2026”, down from 6% a week ago.
It moved −6.6 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 54% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −6.6 pts | −2.3 pts | $354 |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| wisechinaman | No | $662 | +$167 |
| Nostrafakus | No | $603 | +$54 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.