As of 8 November 2026, the highest chances on Polymarket are Mark Rutte at 44%, Ursula von der Leyen at 33% and Mark Carney at 8%. Each line is its own yes-or-no market.
Mark Rutte moved the most this week: 52% to 44% (−8.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Rutte | 44% | +9.5 pts | −8.5 pts | $36k |
| Ursula von der Leyen | 33% | −2.5 pts | −4.5 pts | $0 |
| Mark Carney | 8% | 0.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $0 |
| Emmanuel Macron | 5% | 0.0 pts | −4.6 pts | $0 |
| JD Vance | 5% | +0.3 pts | −6.0 pts | $759 |
A price of 44% means traders pay about $0.44 for a “Mark Rutte” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cattail | Emmanuel Macron · No | $1k | +$246 |
| smellyEllie | JD Vance · No | $886 | +$53 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.