As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 18% by 31 March 2027, 35% by 30 June 2027 and 4% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 56% to 35% (−21.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2027 | 18% | −1.5 pts | −5.5 pts | $5k |
| 30 June 2027 | 35% | 0.0 pts | −21.0 pts | $12k |
| 31 December 2027 | 4% | +1.4 pts | −4.0 pts | $12k |
A price of 35% means traders pay about $0.35 for the 30 June 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius7 | December 31 · No | $13k | +$4k |
| JoeBlack01 | December 31 · No | $6k | +$2k |
| GaioMario | December 31 · No | $6k | +$1k |
| Gladius7 | March 31, 2027 · No | $6k | +$1k |
| CompulsiveGambler | December 31 · No | $5k | +$1k |
| Gladius7 | June 30, 2027 · No | $3k | +$240 |
| vakulchik | December 31 · No | $2k | +$436 |
| 123erty | June 30, 2027 · Yes | $2k | −$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.