As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 2% by 31 December and 18% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2026 line moved the most this week: 4% to 2% (−2.4 pts).
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 2% | −1.4 pts | −2.4 pts | $30k |
| 31 December 2027 | 18% | −0.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $64k |
A price of 18% means traders pay about $0.18 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donny.T | December 31, 2026 · No | $51k | +$4k |
| NeH | December 31, 2026 · No | $49k | +$5k |
| gorovi | December 31, 2026 · No | $32k | +$2k |
| Scoofy-Bubik | December 31, 2026 · No | $24k | +$2k |
| VladimirPooper | December 31, 2026 · No | $19k | +$763 |
| DFK | December 31, 2026 · No | $17k | +$1k |
| thoodr | December 31, 2026 · No | $9k | +$129 |
| AngryRhino | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$81 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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