As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 1 at 67%, followed by 2 at 22% and 3 at 6%.
2 moved the most this week: 46% to 22% (−24.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% | +1.5 pts | +13.5 pts | $36k |
| 2 | 22% | −3.0 pts | −24.0 pts | $10k |
| 3 | 6% | +0.4 pts | +2.3 pts | $12k |
A price of 67% means traders pay about $0.67 for a “1” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 3 · No | $17k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 2 · No | $14k | – |
| cigarettes | 1 · Yes | $8k | +$2k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 1 · No | $6k | – |
| cashy | 1 · Yes | $3k | +$82 |
| 0x223f…a193 | 2 · Yes | $3k | −$3k |
| cashy | 3 · No | $2k | +$6 |
| MrMelonHead | 1 · Yes | $1k | +$244 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.