As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 6% chance for “Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31”, down from 15% a week ago.
It moved +1.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 14% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | +1.0 pts | −8.5 pts | $100k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| stupid22 | No | $9k | +$210 |
| pakukudolphi | No | $5k | +$375 |
| Udonsan | No | $3k | +$405 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | $2k | +$10 |
| DooBieZ | No | $2k | +$282 |
| HerrieDavis | No | $1k | +$27 |
| pink11 | No | $961 | +$153 |
| yayyay | Yes | $672 | −$120 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.