As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $150M at 70%, $300M at 28% and $500M at 12%.
$150M moved the most this week: 75% to 70% (−4.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150M | 70% | 0.0 pts | −4.5 pts | $34k |
| $300M | 28% | +0.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $6k |
| $500M | 12% | 0.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $10k |
| $800M | 6% | 0.0 pts | −1.5 pts | $844 |
| $3B | 1% | −0.4 pts | −1.4 pts | $379 |
A price of 70% means traders pay about $0.70 for a “$150M” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| fleeth | $500M · No | $71k | +$8k |
| fleeth | $300M · No | $43k | +$5k |
| Lecsoman | $300M · Yes | $40k | −$29k |
| ToldYouSo10 | $500M · No | $39k | +$8k |
| NeverYES | $500M · No | $36k | +$13k |
| hooksta | $300M · No | $34k | +$5k |
| X10DED | $500M · No | $33k | +$11k |
| slyfox123 | $300M · No | $30k | +$8k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.