As of 8 November 2026, the Polymarket prices are $100M at 4%, $100M at 4% and $500M at 6%.
$1B moved the most this week: 6% to 4% (−2.3 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 4% | +0.2 pts | −0.8 pts | $801 |
| $100M | 4% | +0.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $526 |
| $500M | 6% | 0.0 pts | −0.8 pts | $7k |
| $1B | 4% | −1.4 pts | −2.3 pts | $7k |
| $5B | 2% | −1.0 pts | −1.4 pts | $2k |
A price of 6% means traders pay about $0.06 for a “$500M” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| bozotys | $100M · No | $10k | +$581 |
| olegs | $500M · No | $10k | +$3k |
| MaxEnt | $100M · No | $9k | +$2k |
| MaxEnt | $500M · No | $7k | +$945 |
| cryptoincome | $500M · No | $6k | +$1k |
| 165198989 | $500M · No | $6k | +$3k |
| olegs | $100M · No | $6k | +$4k |
| alanhutton | $1B · No | $6k | +$830 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Crypto · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.