As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 94% chance for “Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026”, down from 95% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 74% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 94% | −0.1 pts | −0.8 pts | $17k |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ba8f | Yes | $6k | −$30 |
| makeitout | Yes | $5k | +$1k |
| bearema | Yes | $4k | +$540 |
| Tipsterman | Yes | $3k | +$138 |
| MegaKong | Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| farner | Yes | $2k | +$60 |
| Laurenman | Yes | $2k | +$107 |
| Polybius | Yes | $2k | +$14 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.