A prediction market example: take an illustrative market, "Will the Fed cut rates in December?", trading at 24%. It means traders as a whole put the chance at about 24%; a Yes share costs 24¢ and pays $1 if the Fed cuts, a No share costs about 76¢ and pays $1 if it does not. Nimb's map shows live examples across seven categories, from the Politics markets that carry the most money this week to climate and culture; every example below links to a live page, as of 8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC.
What kinds of prediction markets are there?
| Type | Example question | How it reads |
|---|---|---|
| Yes or no | Will a ceasefire hold through 31 December? | One chance |
| Several outcomes, one winner | Who will win the 2028 presidential nomination? | Chances sum to about 100%; multi-outcome markets |
| Date ladder | Will X happen by March, June, December? | Each later date at least as likely as the earlier |
| Price ladder | Where will Bitcoin be on 31 December: above $80k, $100k, $120k? | Each line its own yes-or-no market |
| Count or range | How many rate cuts in 2026? | One bucket wins |
| Sport | Who wins the match? | Settles within hours |
Live examples on Nimb
The biggest moves in the past 24 hours, as of 8 November 2026, 18:00 UTC:
| Market | 24 hours ago | Now | Move | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highest temperature in Tokyo on November 9? · 14°C | 40% | 94% | +54.0 pts | $11k |
| Puffpaw FDV above ___ one day after launch? · $300M | 51% | 96% | +44.8 pts | $33k |
| Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by … · November 11 (11:59 PM ET) | 48% | 74% | +25.5 pts | $64k |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by … · 30 November 2026 | 59% | 34% | −25.5 pts | $89k |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by … · 31 December 2026 | 46% | 70% | +24.1 pts | $187k |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by … · 9 November 2026 | 32% | 12% | −21.0 pts | $22k |
By category: politics · geopolitics · finance · crypto · AI & tech · climate & culture. How to read any of them: how to read a market.
Frequently asked questions
What is a simple example of a prediction market?
A market on "Will it rain in London tomorrow?" where Yes trades at 60¢: traders put the chance at about 60%.
What are prediction markets used for?
Forecasting events, hedging risks tied to them and, for readers, a live, money-backed view of what people expect. As a news instrument.
Last reviewed 8 November 2026 · Data from Polymarket · Not financial advice · Nimb is not affiliated with Polymarket.